Ran across this the other day. A pretty famous economist, Jeffrey Sachs, had some pretty critical things to say about the way the president's erratic economic policies.
Paul. After reading the article you posted, it’s gratifying to hear a renowned economist sees what I see. Good article. The emperor has no clothes. Shame on anyone who supports him.
Thanks Jeanne and Paul, a YouTube psychic says stock market is tired (like an old woman) and tricks, whistles and bells can no longer hold it up. "Our economy is going to take a break." First of many big stair step declines will present around 3rd week in June and continue through July and August. She specifically mentioned the period of June 17-June 21 as a starting point. As months go on, people will really start to lose money; mortgage and housing issues will emerge. "S*** is getting real, now." Trump and others will try to keep the economy propped up, but it's too late in the game. It's "inevitable" and can't be stopped.
A number of intuitives and tarot readers are also seeing a market downturn, with a range of the Fall of 2018 - Summer 2019.
I can't find the exact article I read, but there is a storm brewing in regards to corporate debt and the Fed raising interest rates to try to moderate the economy keep inflation in check. From what I'm reading, corporate debt is very high. The new tax law was going to repatriate money, and the HOPE was that it would be used to pay down debt. Instead, its been used to do stock buybacks, which does not address corporate debt. This debt combined with interest rate hikes is what triggers the next recession (according to one article I read). Tariffs/trade wars are going to contribute to this.
I'm not a finance guy, I can't really explain all this. Like Zoron, my background is in the Sciences. Some links
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-03-08/the-next-recession-may-come-as-a-surprise
http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/26/investing/corporate-debt-rising-rates/index.html
https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/a-look-at-kkrs-recession-warning
The stock market either crashed or had serious corrections in the late 80s, in 2000, and in 2008. We're overdue for another one. Also, the economic recovery is in its 9th year, so it makes sense that it will end soon, and take the markets along. Finally, even though the economy may look healthy, it's not. We've got record deficits, debt, an aging population, and a refusal to allow immigrant labor to contribute to the tax base. Pension are nearly extinct, and even 401ks aren't being offered by many companies. These two things make up a good portion of investments in the markets, so if they no longer exist where will the investments come from? Just the rich? That's not enough.
I feel a catastrophe coming on, similar to 2008. We'll recover, but how much depends on whether we get decent elected officials who fix the structural problems that are just getting worse.
The markets wouldn't recover until 2028? Between 2019, 2020 and 2028, does it mean we will have a recession or a depression?
2028 seems to be a pivotal point in the predictions and my dreams. Every dream I have had of the U.S. splitting/collapsing has been in the late 2020s.
So my question is...
Should I keep putting money in the stock market? My 403B through work is with stock market.
How should I prepare for retirement?
Pacosurfer, That depends of several things.
When do you plan to retire? The closer you are to retirement the more careful you have to be. If you are young (I'm 64 so someone in their 40s is "young" in my book) you have a longer time to recover.
Are bond funds offered? Bond funds are traditionally less volatile although their are no guarantees. Government bond funds are typically the least volatile but also have the lowest returns (which doesn't matter in a bear market).
Remember what Warren Buffet said, "Be bold when others are fearful and fearful when others are bold." IF we do have a bear market (and it doesn't take any particular physic ability to realize that one is overdue) it is a buying opportunity. Fortunes are made in bear markets. If a stock index fund that is selling today for $100 suddenly drops to $25, you are buying 4x the shares with each monthly contribution. It will come back in several years but instead of having 250 shares you have 1,000 (or whatever). If you have a stable job bear markets are great opportunities. Fortunes really were made in 2009.
You can also go to a financial planner - not one that works on commission but one that charges by the hour - and ask them what a defensive strategy would look like? (Try your bank or credit union. You might not even have to pay as a customer.) There are many, many people in the investment world that are very nervous at the moment. You won't come off as a crackpot and you don't have to mention any predictions on this site. A bear market is overdue and everyone knows it. The important thing to remember, however, is that when one does come, it's a buying opportunity. Maybe a once in a lifetime buying opportunity.
Good luck.
Thanks, Paul.
I'm about 40, so I have about 25 years left. Right now, I contribute 11% of my income to my 403B plan.
I think I will keep doing that. I guess no one can predict it, so we do the best we can.
Thanks, again!
Do you check the allocations of your investments every now and then? It's a good idea to do that. Maybe your 401k fund provides an advisor (although some of them get commissions for pushing certain products, so do ask about that). Try to get out of things that aren't going to last (fossil fuels) and into things that will grow. No matter what this government is doing, things like coal are dead, even if they get propped up for a while.
I'm 54, and I'm still pretty aggressive with my 403b (the nonprofit employer version of a 401k). I'm planning to work until I'm 70, so I figure I've got time. And I also max out my contributions (mostly because I can afford to do that now, although that was not the case when I was your age). And if everything goes to hell in a hand basket, at least you're reducing your taxable income and not paying it to this corrupt government,
Thanks, Lynnventura.
Yes, I check the allocation. It is very diversified...I know the tech giants are in there (Facebook, Amazon, Google, etc...). I will keep maxing out my contributions. I put all my raises in there. Thanks for your help!
OK I found the article. Check this one out, it isn't a very difficult read.....
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4118869-stock-market-will-peak-may-10-2019-4-00-p-m-est
thank you for this...
I guess since I have another 25 years to go...I'll just keep doing what I'm doing.
In the April 29th reading, I had posted this line for August: “Wall Street feels off." Andrew asked me for more on it so I actually perused my many old notes on the economy for the past four years and have this response:
The August prediction Wall Street feels off, was just a feeling that the markets are wavering, dropping, rallying, not stable. I found old notes showing that from June to August 2018 there’s first a drop then a rally. Don't take these dates too literally or you could get burned trying to time the market, okay?
These are indicators of how fragile the market is, but I don’t think it goes into a bear market yet.
The U.S. market is like the earth around Donald Trump that has got sink holes in it from all the swampy conditions, pun intended.
The U.S. economy is really TWO economies and has been two economies for the last decade or more. Having two economies, one for the ultra wealthy and one for everyone else, is not sustainable. The wealthy are sucking all the energy out of the economy, which will make it crash.
The person in charge of the U.S. economy, the president, is ignorant and foolhardy about economics. He caters to the ultra rich and then to any whim that he thinks will keep him in office. People who say he’s caused the markets to soar are missing the point. The markets have been soaring on a cocaine high throughout 2017 – on a false sugar high that is not sustainable. Trump is messing around and ultimately will pull the trigger that will bring on a long-term market crash.
I had a vision of this impending bear market when meditating on retreat back in Nov 2014. I saw it would happen sometime in 2019 and 2020. Then the markets would be restored in 2028. I also found an old prediction I did back in 2007 that predicted the bear market of 2008, then a sweeping bull market starting in 2011. That prediction showed the DOW going to 30,000.
But I myself would not bank on these predictions so please be careful. Be careful about banking on anyone’s market predictions, or on trying to time the market downturns. I myself do not play the market at all. In spite of the claims, very few people have ever made money predicting the market.
Although I've been accurate on the market at crucial times, I also misread something I'd seen for 2017. Back in 2014, I'd seen major volatility erupting in 2017, and worsening in 2018, then a bear market in 2019 or 2020. It turns out that 2017 did not bring major volatility in the financial markets. It brought new highs.
What I realize I'd been seeing was the collective nervous system of the people of the U.S. and around the world. In 2017, Donald Trump brought mass anxiety and a roller coaster collective conscience to new levels. That was the volatility I'd seen coming for 2017, not the stock market. This goes to the two economies we live in -- the DOW reflects the economy of the very rich.
Would love to hear your thoughts.