I currently have a child in college. The state of this country and world terrifies me and breaks my heart in many ways, but I get so sad thinking about what things will look like for my kids as they enter adulthood. My son is a political science/Spanish double major, and I truly want to believe he will be a force for good, but he’s also never really been challenged or had to work too hard for things. He’s a bit “charmed,” and I don’t know how far that charm will take him into the future. And then there’s the worry about student debt he will accrue through grad school ... will it be worth it? Will he be joining an economy that has imploded? Will he live in our basement until he’s 35? And what about his sister, who isn’t nearly as book smart or driven as he is, but is monumentally curious and artistic ... will there be a place for someone like her? Will the world just weigh with ugly heaviness on a spirit like hers? I feel like our entire existence as a country is just a board game being played by greedy, shallow sociopaths, and we are pawns in their hands.
That's how I am feeling...I use to believe that if we worked hard, we could achieve the American dream, however we define that for ourselves.
But I no longer feel that way. I do believe I am on track spiritually, but for the physical world, I feel like we are just expendable for those in power.
to anyone worried about the national debt and China holding a large amount of US debt, I highly recommend watching this video by Pro Stephanie Kelton. You'll feel better afterwards.
i'm bumping this economic thread because of my 2014 prediction that something may happen to the economy (or perhaps is was also the collective nervous system which can also be reflected in the economy) near the end of 2019 or beginning of 2020, along with some economic indicators a reader sent to me recently.
That long-term prediction I had is pretty old (2014). So far it has fit the rising collective angst but not the economy. However, economic indicators may be showing that we are on course for a bear market. I'm not a market forecaster, so must appeal to those who are. Here is an email I got from a reader who follows the markets and feels that a market correction is on the way. I'd like to know how knowledgable people would respond to this information:
Quick heads up -- A market correction is coming our way.
Some of the reasons include:
The stock market is overvalued and it shed over 1500 pts. since last Wednesday
The tariffs Trump has imposed on several countries, including China will hurt consumers
Trump is also edging the Feds and Jerome Powell to reduce interest rates
American companies are not investing in new equipment
Major banks (Wells, BofA, Morgan Stanley, Chase) are alerting their major clients to invest in secure funds.
I am enclosing a few articles from established economists who are well versed in the matter.
JP Morgan warns of a 'significant' sell-off in US stocks this quarter
The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite have jumped by more than 20% this year, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average isn't far behind at around 17%. Read the full story
I agree Jeanne.
The Fed is already lowering rates. Hubby and I looked into a mortgage re-fi so we could do some house renovations. We decided to postpone because the cost of building materials (mostly from China) is up 23%, and the interest rates only got lowered .25%. New Housing Starts will go down this year as a result as well, which is another economic indicator. There is also another real estate bubble happening in cities. Biggest example is Nashville TN, but it's everywhere, especially in popular coastal cities.
I am a big fan of the podcast Planet Money (from NPR). Thanks to them I actually understand what a credit default swap is and how that led to the 2008 crash. They are indicating lately that they expect a downturn by end of this year too.
What's driving the looming downturn is a little different. Large corporations are buying up properties all over the map, stockpiling them, bundling them, and selling "shares" to foreign investors - mostly Russian, Chinese, Saudi. The properties sit empty or in some cases the corporations contract out local companies to make them into short term rentals. This phenomenon is driving up the cost of housing both for buyers and renters. It's unsustainable. So I think that's how the next housing bubble will burst.
It's been a while since I last posted. Things have been getting a bit mad here in the UK with Brexit and tbh my energies have been low. I thought I'd jump on tonight to check what's been happening and I stumbled on this thread.
This morning I completed a meditation and it was ALL focused on the economy.
- Financial crash coming.
- On par or worse than the Great Depression. (Sorry peeps.)
- Retail will change. Smaller, local, co-operative/ community type stores. Beans, lentils, oats etc, these will be sold without plastic packaging. This will become more popular. Retailers will want to change as packaging is taking up too much space in transit and on shelving.
- People will awaken. There's a force greater than rich people convincing us to buy 'stuff'. It's a re-set. I feel 2008 was a warning to get our act together. People connecting to each other will be more important.
- Europe will be hit hard. People will be shocked at the supposed 'strong and stable' countries financial collapse. I'm sorry to say in my vision I saw soldiers on a shore line pointing guns at rubber dinghies coming in to land telling refugees on the boats to turn around and go back. Borders will close.
- Britain will not escape the crash but will fare better, funnily enough due to Brexit. I see the question of ration cards being brought up, but it wasn't a strong vision. Although Britain will do better it won't be enough to stop the UK from breaking apart. Scotland will be Independent or Ref held by 2023. Northern Ireland will join Ireland.
- Government's will use tried and tested methods to control, but it won't work.
-People will 'come off' the Internet. It will be used for necessities. Food shopping etc. The surprising vision I had is that it will be used more for Doctor's consultations.
- I had a vision of the Chinese Dragon sitting over a map of China, turned towards Europe watching with interest. Protecting China. But the interesting thing was it had it's back to the US.
-Trump? Nothing, nada, just black nothingness. The visions of him acting like a toddler are now gone. Melania, I see her looking towards Slovakia.
Sounds really pessimistic, but I don't feel that people will be scared. I'm getting an undercurrent that people want change. They no longer want to heavily in debt, spending their lives 'shopping' and in materialism.
I've watched the film The Big Short (about the 2008 financial crash) 5 times in 3 weeks. I keep watching it as if I've missed something. Daily I'm refreshing the newspapers web pages as if something is about to happen.
When I ask what's next. I see a doorstep as if it's literally on the doorstep.
Strangely, I’m not scared if the economy tanks. So many of us are struggling, even after going into debt to go to college. I want a re-set; a new start.
Thanks a lot for bumping this thread, Jeanne as things are indeed becoming wobbly in the global economy. The fact that the Fed just cut interest rates is ominous enough. My father is a financial advisor, and I'll try to ask him what he has been advising his clients to do lately.
I didn't find your visions pessimistic at all. I've been saying for a while that a global financial crash could actually be a godsend. So much cultural energy is invested in our zombie economy, and a terminal collapse would unleash enormous amounts of creativity and ingenuity that could finally go towards enacting the societal transition humanity so desperately needs. Small co-operative retail? No more plastic? People no longer glued to their electronic screens? Count me in!
On a different note, do you have any thoughts or predictions you could share about Brexit on the Brexit Deal thread? Especially now that Boris Johnson is PM, I'd really like to hear a Briton's psychic take on possible outcomes.
Thanks all for the warm welcome back! x
Yesterday morning the visions began to 'build' up in me. They were very strong and to get a release I had to write them down. I dropped everything I was doing.
I believe it's already begun.
@Laura F Whenever I see footage of Trump and Melania I'm always drawn to Melania. I feel she will return home for peace and quiet with her son. I see pain in her face. She'll go freely and with relief.
The bond yield curve has been inverted for 3 month vs 10 year bonds for a few months now. The bond yield curve for 2 years vs 10 year bonds is flattening and almost inverted.
Inversion is where the short term rates are higher than the long term rates. Normally, you would get a lower rate on a 3 month bond compared to a 10 year bond. The idea is that by promising to tie up your money for a longer period of time, you will be enticed with a better yield.
However, this isn't currently the case, the 3 month yield is higher than the 10 year yield. Several of the last recessions have been predated by an inversion of the bond yield curve.
Attached article is from July. Rates have been inverted since.
@coyote, I'd be curious to hear what your father thinks about our economy. I have my own impressions, which ain't good! Since I'm a senior I have my concerns, but I'm trying not to lose sleep over it.
The press thinks we are headed for a recession now. Today's economic news is looking grim, and I'd be more optimistic except that it fits the long-term vision I had in 2014 that began with a downturn at the end of 2019 or beginning of 2020.
Keep in mind that Brexit is coming which will cause even more market problems.
And then there are the reckless manipulations by Donald Trump who thinks he can play around with global markets like someone plays roulette in Las Vegas. He can't just jerk the Chinese around with his on again, off again tariffs.
The Chinese won't sit back and go back to business as usual when he says he won't impose some tariffs after tall. There are consequences to your actions, Mr. President, and this time you just might bring down your election prospects along with the your whole party.
I don't want anyone to suffer from the upcoming economic downturn, particularly we regular people. That said, I am feeling a small amount of schadenfreude at the thought of those who did vote for Trump even though they knew he was a racist, misogynist pig with no idea of running a country experiencing economic woes.
Yes, I will go to hell for feeling that way. Unfortunately, that's how our system is designed. When you have an oligarchy, where the wealthy get socialism and the poor get capitalism, only when your wallets are impacted will a difference be made. I believe in capitalism to a point. I want it to be fair and compassionate, but it may not be possible, as the nature of capitalism is greed and profit over people.
My best friend and I are both Master-degree educated, with a mortgage-like student debt. We both said..."This recession would hurt us if we had any money."
Hopefully, if a recession does come, it will cause a rock-bottom reality where we have to change for the better.
My husband and I are seniors -- not wealthy, live honestly, modestly, worked hard our entire lives. I am bone-weary exhausted -- partly from my aging body, ongoing health issues, the stress of living under this regime, and now most likely a recession. Although I knew this was coming, it is still difficult to face. We'll just have to reassess everything, be grateful for what we have, and make the best of it.
@codyroo the inverted bond yields make me think of the sub prime mortgage CDOs when the value of these were higher than the value of the mortgage market.
Same aging boat that has been patched and repaired repeatedly, but as they say "hope floats" so I guess that's the old, new, and eternal name fior my boat.
And yes, there is one shared oar slightiy broken oar, but hubby and I are rowing together and we have tried as hard as we could to provide second hand life vests for the kids and grandkids.
We grew up hearing about the great recession everytime we made ourselves a butter or mayonnaise or ketchup sandwich, we were happy to have that aging but still soft white bread to put it on.
To this day, we remember our childhoods fondly and shared that story with all of our own kids.
When Jeanne and others warned us years ago of these hard times coming, i shopped sales and stocked shelves in the garage with canned goods and bottled water for emergencies. Now, we've already used up half of those and it makes me laugh.
Those aren't the hardest things about hard times at all.
As long as we're all here, all together, families loving, sharing and caring fir each other, I know we can get through even the hardest times.
Here, we are a bigger, different kind of family but one none the less. We will keep one another going, reach out with open hearts and helping hands when we can, and just as in 2008, when we had no work and no social services help,we still got through it with even tighter belts and a sense of compassion for those even worse off than we were because they didn't have our experiences, our fortitude, our small savings of $10 or $20 a month for all our lives or our sense of thriftiness much less hope.
Hang in there everybody, we are stronger and better off in so many challenging ways than we think and we were really and truly made for these times and we will get through whatever we have to for ourselves and those we love.
Love all of you, guys 💜
- Per CNN: The Dow fell 800 points Wednesday after the bond market, for the first time in over a decade, flashed a warning signal that has an eerily accurate track record for predicting recessions.
First thought housing bubble is about to explode again. I am sure the banks have relaxed there borrowing requirements again. I have been seeing house around my neighborhood up for sale and less then a month they are under contract. Very speedy sales again.