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World Predictions Forum2019-02-19T23:53:00-04:00

"National Emergency" at the Border  

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(@coyote)
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02/17/2019 10:02 pm  

It's finally happened; with Trump's declaration of an emergency at the US-Mexico border, we are in the territory of a constitutional crisis and possibly approaching the nadir of America's moral crisis under the Trump Administration.

Has anyone meditated on how this showdown over a border wall (or glorified fence, or whatever you want to call it) is going to end? With several states, tribal nations, local governments, civil rights groups, and environmental organizations all getting ready to file lawsuits, drawn out litigation could prevent anything from actually being erected before November 2020. Or a lawsuit challenging Trump's executive overreach goes to the Supreme Court, with John Roberts being the swing vote (50% chance SCOTUS sides with the plaintiffs, 50% chance they side with the White House). Or Trump becomes so embroiled in scandals stemming from the special counsel inquiry, the chain of command breaks down and no funds are appropriated for border security beyond those already earmarked in the compromise spending package Congress recently approved. There are more possible outcomes (including a Standing Rock-like protest organized by one of the native American tribes on the border), but the three I just outlined seem the likeliest.

However this turns out, we are in the critical zone.


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(@anita)
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02/19/2019 2:43 pm  

I will not say who, but a medium wrote to get out of the US about 2 years ago if trump announces a Reichtag event. I had to look that up. But calling it an invasion and emergency that people come over the border sure seems like that to me. I found it difficult to imagine trump still around in 2020, then again I find it incredible he is around now. The majority of the GOP are concerned with global warming but not with the danger to our freedoms. I wonder why.

Anita


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(@luminata)
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02/20/2019 6:10 pm  

Hi all, here is a link to where I see this going 🙂

https://www.jeannemayell.com/community/u-s-politics/robert-mueller/paged/5/#post-10127

I'll add there may be some Russian contractors paid for metal fencing work while the courts sort out the non- emergency declaration.  That will also wind up in the courts.


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(@rosieheart)
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Posts: 144
02/28/2019 10:47 pm  

For what it's worth, Republican Senator Lamar Alexander urged  Trump today to revoke his national emergency declaration or face a "GOP Rebellion" in the Senate vote.   Interestingly, even Breitbart and Fox are covering this story.  Here's an article from Politico:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/28/lamar-alexander-trump-national-emergency-1196748


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(@paul-w)
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Posts: 178
03/01/2019 12:47 pm  

Their fear is that the next president might be a Democrat who will declare a national emergency over climate change/gun violence/healthcare/student loan debt. Congress has been giving away power to the executive branch for a generation. (Giving the president essentially unlimited war powers for instance.) They are too afraid of "the base" to take it back. I think we would be better off if Congress would step up and do their job.


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(@jeanne-mayell)
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03/06/2019 8:23 am  

This was in the Boston Globe today: The Number of Migrants Crossing the Border is Breaking Records - "The number crossing in February was more than double the number for February last year." They attribute it to two possible factors: extreme poverty and food scarcity in the Guatemalan western highlands, and new rules that the border agents must release detainees within 20 days. Any thoughts?


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(@laura-f)
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Posts: 419
03/06/2019 5:23 pm  

I think this may be exaggerated reporting. I know the BG is well respected, but this sounds like it came from Stephen Miller's desk.

Here are some counterpoints:

NY Times June '18

USA Today Nov '18

Politico Nov '18

It looks to me like reporters with different biases are manipulating the stats. In every case they are using AP as a source, which is usually reliable, but not always. Also, these articles focus on number of border crossings comparing one month with the same month the year prior. What I see between the lines is that the number of arrests for Feb 2019 is higher than for Feb 2018, and is the highest amount of arrests in a month since 1971. To me that means more ICE going out and catching people, not that more people are crossing the border.

Yes, facilities are full, again because of ICE action. Yes, there's an insurmountable backlog, especially in Texas and here in Tijuana. Basically, everyone gets arrested, asylum is an abstract concept that is not being utilized, so of course it looks like we're being inundated.

We are not being overrun. Don't let the bastards convince you. This is "security theater" meant to distract and scare us so that we don't object to: more money for ICE, more money for private prisons to be expanded/built, more slave labor for corporate interests, closing of borders, emergency declarations, etc.

 

Who owns the Globe anyway? An answer may lie there...

 

 


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(@jeanne-mayell)
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03/06/2019 5:26 pm  

Thank-you, Laura.  The Boston Globe may be well respected but this would not be the first time they have blown it. However, does anyone have data for February 2019?  That's what they are reporting on. 


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(@laura-f)
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Posts: 419
03/06/2019 8:03 pm  

Here is the source data from CBP:

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration

Caveat emptor- none of us can know if they are lying.


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(@laura-f)
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Posts: 419
03/08/2019 11:23 am  

A good article from LA Times that explains how both sides are manipulating the stats on border crossings:

Discrepancies at the border


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(@michele-b-here-in-the-forum)
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Posts: 748
03/09/2019 10:11 am  

Excellent and very informative link, Laura!

As for the Boston Globe, reporters get things wrong sometimes and editors don't catch errors all the time.

As to your question,  John W. Henry (American businessman, investor and the founder of John Henry & Company) is the principal owner of The Boston Globe. 

The Globe has always had a great record (once owned by New York Times) but errors, alas occur.

Our local paper is going under here in Salem OR and Portland's is so small now it's a joke.

We just need to all read more than one news source and/or look online in non-aggregate feeds (celebrity and popular news feeds are quickly becoming the new form of "yellow journalism" and they, unfortunately, are far too easy to use.

So, Laura, thanks for finding all of us this for us!

Love, light, and healing prayers,
💜 MIchele


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