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World Predictions Forum2019-04-12T14:28:48-04:00

Brexit deal  

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(@ukisland)
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01/16/2019 11:30 am  
  • Democracy is an illusion I firmly believe that now. 

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(@winkrainbow)
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01/30/2019 5:24 pm  

Hi all, I recently watched Jeanne’s read the future YouTube. I got caught up with work and didn’t manage to get the whole way through. But I had an overwhelming feeling of ‘no ferries, no ferries’ It could of course just be my fears and what I’ve read here in the UK, but I wanted to put it out there nonetheless. 


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(@jeanne-mayell)
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01/30/2019 9:40 pm  

Hi Winkrainbow,  I don't know what made me say anything at all about Brexit in that YouTube.  I had not planned to mention it.  It just popped out and I wish I'd edited it out afterwards because it seemed to come out of the ether.

When I meditated a few weeks earlier I did get a shakeup in the collective during March. I immediately thought of Brexit.  But it could end out being something else.  Sorry if I scared you. 

I need to put out another Youtube so all the focus isn't on just that one. The future changes every day. 

 


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(@winkrainbow)
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02/27/2019 7:30 am  

Hi everyone, any update to possible outcomes on Brexit? We're so close now...


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(@lovendures)
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03/12/2019 7:20 pm  

Feeling for all our UK  members and lurkers right now.  How are all of you all holding up? 

So much confusion and upheaval as  the MP's just voted down the new May EU withdrawal deal.  It is said  a no Brexit Deal is much closer to happening now.  May light be shed to guide the UK on the best course of action.

"The next step is... another vote (this one on Wednesday). MPs will vote on a motion on whether to allow the UK to exit the EU on 29 March without a deal - a so-called "disorderly" or "no-deal" Brexit.

Leaving the EU without a deal - and therefore without the 21-month transition period provided for by the deal - carries significant risks for trade, immigration, health, and more, and parliament will almost certainly reject that possibility.

Rejection of a no-deal Brexit would then set up... yes, you guessed it: another vote.

This one would decide whether Mrs May will go back to the EU to request an extension to Article 50 - the formal name for the notification from the UK that it is leaving the union.

That would throw the Brexit ball into the EU's court - potentially allowing the union to decide the terms of any extension period."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-47542925


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(@lovendures)
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03/12/2019 9:43 pm  

Would like to clarify I also feel for ALL people in the UK and in other countries who are dealing with the repercussions of this horribly planned situation.


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(@ukisland)
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03/13/2019 12:04 am  

Legally in written in law by default we leave on the 29th with no deal. The gov will need to rush through new legislation and fast. 


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 Blue
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03/13/2019 2:05 am  

It's a horrible situation. I really don't see an easy solution. Every path seems fraught with difficulties. I doubt there'll be a vote for no deal exit, but if they vote for an extension even that's problematic - we'll either have to make it only for a short period of a month or two, or if it's longer there's the issue of UK EU MPs - they'll still have to be elected and then there's questions of how much and how do they participate etc.). Listening to the analysis on the news yesterday an extension it's more messy than you would think! Plus the EU have said the deal offered was the final one, no more (let's hope that's just talk to push us to wrap this up). If it ended up that we have a very long extension, like 2 years or something I think that will cause a lot of uproar by the Brexiteers and there'll be fear mongering of 'we won't get our Brexit'. Parliament has to be seen to carrying out the people's will. How it's going to be finally achieved in a satisfactory way I don't know:( 

I did a Tarot reading some weeks back on what would happen regarding Teresa May's deal and got that it would be an uphill struggle with many acting to not accept it, and the deal becoming 'nothing' (rejected/no deal/other alternatives). I also read on a no-deal Brexit and got that the possibility would weaken. So it's interesting to see it all play out, but I'd rather not have to!!

 


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(@jeanne-mayell)
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03/18/2019 4:40 pm  

I found this primer on Brexit ( https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887#)   for people who need a basic understanding of Brexit.  It demystifies the issue yet gives the complexities.  Tells who supports and opposes it and why, the options available at this point for the UK, and the consequences of a no-deal exit. 

 It's dated January 2019, though, so if someone wants to update it please do. 

 

 


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(@lovendures)
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03/18/2019 8:54 pm  

My daughter is currently getting her Master's degree in the UK.  For a better understanding of what has been happening  regarding Brexit, she has found these 2 videos helpful. 

Gotta love the way the man ( I don't know his title) says Ooooder.

The US Congress is very different than the UK Parliament that is for sure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKMueoYCtW0&feature=youtu.be

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoLvGbF-97I&feature=youtu.be


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 stu
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03/19/2019 9:21 am  

That's John Bercow, here he is being harassed by the BBC on the way to work

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1107935118394642432

Basically what's happened is... May's Deal with the EU was defeated by the biggest defeat ever in the house of commons.

May then went back to the EU to ask for some changes, she didn't get the deal changed but she came back with some superficial legal documents to go with the deal.

MPs then voted and rejected May's new deal too, they also voted against leaving the EU without a deal and to seek an extension to leaving the EU.

May was then contemplating bringing her deal back again for another vote without any changes. This annoyed a lot of MPs who said they had already voted on this.

John Bercow the speaker ruled that a deal could not be voted on again unless it was substantially different. He referenced an old rule from 1604. 

So now May has a few options..

1. Get the deal changed or add something to it (I expect a fudge here)

2. Close this session of parliament and open a new one, this would involve the queen.

3. Call a general election (see point 2)

4. Pass a vote in the commons to by-pass this rule (same as voting on the deal)

5. Some kind of shadow vote or weird technical way around this.

 

The main problem with May's deal was that MPs were worried that they would be trapped in the deal forever, there didn't seem to be a way out of it. Apparently it falls (or may fall) under the Vienna Convention. Which would make it very hard to escape from unless there were 'exceptional reasons'.

example: Hungary and Slovakia signed a treaty in 1977 to build a dam together, in 1993 Hungary wanted out of the treaty and claimed that there had been some big changes since the treaty was signed - Slovakia had split from Czechoslovakia and the fall of the Soviet Union. But the International Court ruled that this was not sufficiently exceptional. So i'm not sure what is required to be 'exceptional'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47568883

At least while being a member of the EU there is a way of leaving.

She also needs to go back to the EU who are meeting on the 21st and 22nd of March and beg for an extension. The EU have said they need to know how long this extension should be and what it's to be used for - there must be a good reason. Nobody in the UK seems to know the answer to those two questions. The extension must be agreed by all 27 EU countries before they will grant it.

Apparently Leading Eurosceptics are lobbying right-of-centre governments in Europe (Italy/Poland and Hungary) to see if they would veto a British extension of article 50 and so ensure the UK drops out of the EU at the end of the month without a deal.

Even if May does bring her deal back for another vote she may find it hard to get through. There are rumors that some MPs will only back the deal if May resigns. Others are die hard brexiteers who will never support it. Remainers hate the deal just as much.

The EU have said there can be no changes to the deal and this is the best and only one (but they did say that last time too).

If May does get an extension MPs will need to vote on changing the day we leave the EU (29th March), it will also need to go through the house of lords. May has said over 100 times that the UK is leaving on the 29th March, changing this date will not be popular with Conservative votes who are much more in favor of leaving the EU. Deal or no Deal.

There's 10 days left to go....

Here's John Bercow reading his statement (you may need to view this on a desktop pc)

https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/6289c4a0-f2c1-4375-afe4-a9dcffbbe738?in=15:33:26&out=16:43:36

 

 

 

 

 


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 Dina
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03/19/2019 10:45 am  

Interestingly May thinks we can't have another referendum, but keeps on bringing back the same deal again and again for the vote. 


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(@coyote)
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03/19/2019 12:02 pm  

Thanks a lot Stu for that brief run-down. I've been receiving the Guardian's Brexit weekly update since right after the 2016 referendum, and even for me the machinations in Westminster are becoming more than head-spinning. 

One possible outcome to this that no one seems to want to acknowledge (understandably) is an accidental no-deal Brexit. Conventional wisdom has it that there is "no way" the EU 27 would reject an Article 50 extension for fear of a chaotic Brexit. Yet the same consensus agreed there was "no way" Trump would become US president or that Britons would vote to leave the EU in the first place.

As you mentioned, Stu, a cliff-edge Brexit could be brought about by the Eurosceptic lobbying efforts in Poland, Hungary, or Italy. Yet patience with the UK seems to be wearing thin across the entire continent, and even loyal EU members  are afflicted with a hubristic belief that they have all of the cards and are capable of weathering a no-deal scenario. So perhaps even a core EU country could be tempted to cut Britain loose.

This whole back and forth between London and Brussels is a clash of wills that could very well bring about mutually assured destruction. Of course, no one except the most hard-line of Brexiteers and Putin-backed politicians wants that to happen, but reason is in short supply these days.


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(@laura-f)
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03/19/2019 7:43 pm  

Excuse. my ignorance of British Law and EU Law - WHY can there not be a second referendum to either uphold or withdraw the Brexit altogether? Is there no further input from the public?


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(@coyote)
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03/19/2019 9:53 pm  

Hi Laura. Another referendum is possible, but it would only come about if the EU agrees to extend negotiations beyond summer of 2019 (as it stands, talks are supposed to end on March 29th). But Parliament has to approve of a new referendum in the first place, and there's no guarantee enough lawmakers will back that option. I suggest reading this article from the Guardian, which comes with  a handy little flowchart that maps out all of the various ways the Brexit process could unfold.

The prospect of a re-do vote raises lots of thorny questions about the integrity of democratic governance, however. This excellent analysis from the New York Times explains the possible pitfalls of a second referendum.

 


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(@lovendures)
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03/20/2019 2:18 pm  

Ouch and Ugh!

This is not going to end well.

The EU will only agree to a short delay to Brexit if MPs approve the current withdrawal agreement next week, Theresa May has been told.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47636011


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(@dcd2510)
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03/29/2019 9:33 am  

Theresa May's Brext deal is being debated about for a third time. Jeremy Corbyn is opposed to the deal, as are the DUP and some of her own party. Mr. Corbyn wants a General Election, and he may get his wish, with some sources stating that Mrs. May will call a General Election if her deal fails again. Mrs. May has already decided that if her deal passes she will resign and let someone else from her party take over as Prime Minister.


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(@lovendures)
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03/29/2019 11:37 pm  

The MP's rejected May's withdrawal agreement, again.  Labor says May must go.  Thousands of "leave" supporters are protesting by Parliament.  Today was the day Brexit was originally supposed to happen.  The next date is now April 12th though I don't see how that will happen.  I will be in the UK at that time visiting my daughter, it should be interesting.  She has be getting a first hand look at a very interesting time in history.   Her university keeps holding information meetings and support groups for all the EU students who have been riding the roller coaster alongside  the Brits and who still don't know how this will effect their studies there in in the future. I asked her how students are feeling today and she said most are just waiting and watching.  She feels the jury is still out on which country is dealing with a worse situation, the US or the UK but she is leaning UK right now.


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 Dina
(@dina)
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03/30/2019 4:23 am  

Nearly one million people went on the Peoples March asking for the second referendum. There was no violence. People came to London from all over the country. Of course Mrs May ignored them, big mistake. Her party is finished.  Nearly 6 million people signed the petition asking for article 50 to be revoked, she ignored that too, she keeps on talking about the will of the people like a broken record. She forgets about the 48% of voters, completely ignoring them, most likely that number is much higher now.  She should just agree to hold the second referendum, so people can have the final say, knowing all the facts what leaving actually means, because leave campaign was based on lies, lies and more lies, false promises and fueled by foreign money. They want to weaken the Europe. 

The mood has changed and many, many people who voted leave and thought that leaving will be easy and we will still be able to enjoy all the benefits of the membership have changed their mind, at the time of the referendum they didn't fully understand what being part of the EU actually means and all the benefits. From economic benefits to human rights, workers rights, food standards etc  Lots of young people who were too young to vote in 2016 can vote now and they would mostly vote remain. And that is their future that is affected the most.

If Mr Corbyn wants to be a PM he will have to get behind the second referendum and put it on their manifesto.  

Yesterday's protests were lots of right wing drunks shouting vile abuse at police and press. 

I keep on thinking about Zorons predictions some time ago, that eventually we will crash out and eventually it will lead to break down of the United Kingdom. I wonder if the timeline has changed after all this time and if there is a chance of leaving with a decent deal or remain? 


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(@dcd2510)
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03/31/2019 8:44 am  
Posted by: Dina

Nearly one million people went on the Peoples March asking for the second referendum. There was no violence. People came to London from all over the country. Of course Mrs May ignored them, big mistake. Her party is finished.  Nearly 6 million people signed the petition asking for article 50 to be revoked, she ignored that too, she keeps on talking about the will of the people like a broken record. She forgets about the 48% of voters, completely ignoring them, most likely that number is much higher now.  She should just agree to hold the second referendum, so people can have the final say, knowing all the facts what leaving actually means, because leave campaign was based on lies, lies and more lies, false promises and fueled by foreign money. They want to weaken the Europe. 

The mood has changed and many, many people who voted leave and thought that leaving will be easy and we will still be able to enjoy all the benefits of the membership have changed their mind, at the time of the referendum they didn't fully understand what being part of the EU actually means and all the benefits. From economic benefits to human rights, workers rights, food standards etc  Lots of young people who were too young to vote in 2016 can vote now and they would mostly vote remain. And that is their future that is affected the most.

If Mr Corbyn wants to be a PM he will have to get behind the second referendum and put it on their manifesto.  

Yesterday's protests were lots of right wing drunks shouting vile abuse at police and press. 

I keep on thinking about Zorons predictions some time ago, that eventually we will crash out and eventually it will lead to break down of the United Kingdom. I wonder if the timeline has changed after all this time and if there is a chance of leaving with a decent deal or remain? 

Mr. Corbyn already has it at least partially in the manifesto, but that is decided by members. I really hope Mr. Corbyn can form government, as the UK is being really stifled by Austerity.


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