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Previously I have posted here that 2017-18 are the main transition years. So, some news which made headlines are very important for future(as some events are who didn't made to any headline). We have seen trailer of next two decades in Kurdistan, Catalonia and recently in Iran. There won't be any world war this year though tensions and conflicts between nations will rise up. There won't be economic crash although economy will take many hits through out the year. 2019-20 are the final years of old world order. Everyone should get ready for them.
----------International Scene-------
This is the year of Russian election. Russia will be busy to protect Putin from western mechanisms. So, during the first half of the year they will remain mostly quiet. They will again become active in international arena at the end of the year.
China and Russia have a silent understanding between them. Otherwise Russia would not have entered Syria. As both countries relationship begins to turns cold with USA it will take a shape of an alliance in coming years.
In Middle East Jerusalem will continue to be a controversial issue. Israel won't agree to any type of compromise rather they will tighten their grip on Jerusalem. It will make them more isolated in international arena. US will continue to support Israel. Palestinian authorities may go to international court. In Middle East public opinion will turn increasingly against Israel as more casualities happens in protest against Israeli govt. Even in friendly countries like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia etc. Relation between Qatar and Saudi & UAE will detoriate more.Â
Whether Trump gets a second term or not, in 2020-24(before political reset happens) I see Europe and Middle East getting divided into Anti-USA and Pro-USA camp. It is the result of constant waning global influence of USA.
China-India relation will remain mostly cool this year, however a border incident may rise up between two countries. In both countries leadership there will be lots of confusion regarding each other. In coming years however their relationship will continue to detoriate rapidly.
Another important area is AF-PAK area. In Afghanistan Jihadi influence will continue to rise. Although media won't probably give any importance to this. In coming years due to close proximity to Afghanistan, central Asia will flare up.
    Military conflicts and              Terrorism
I do not see any devastating war happening this year but tensions in global hotspots such as Israel, North Korea, Kashmir will continue to rise up. National conflicts too will increase this year. All in all tension rises. But escalation happens in 2019.
President Trump will take tough stand regarding North Korea after middle of the year, I won't be surprised if I see seventh fleet becoming active after July/August. This will cool down America's relationship with China.
I do not have the capability to see the terrorist attacks happening. But, I feel both UK and France will continue to be the terror hotspots in Europe(except Germany)for long time to come. Other than that Australia will begin to see lone-wolf type of attack. It is the begining of this type of security and law & order problem that country will have deal with in future.
Terrorist attacks will also increase in Israel and India including one major attack in Israel. Jewish synagogues in Europe may come under attack from terrorists. The leadership won't tolarate this and will take tough stand against terrorists. After march terrorist attacks will continue to rise in Kashmir and the state will continue to boil for next few months, India-Pak relationship will take downward turn because of this. But despite bloodshade India will be able to kill a lot of terrorists and rein in cross-border terrorism somewhat.
------------------Politics------------------
Any attempt to impeach President Donald Trump will fail. He will continue to face resistence from a section of his own party and deep state. Deep state do not want any outsider, a wild card on top of that in president seat. Due to the fear of assasination trump will withdraw from public appearences from the end of this year. The term is agrophobic I believe.
To save his own skin trump would try to please elites, I predict he would be in elites pocket by the end of this year. He won't care about the effects his decision will have on the world. World will see the repercussions of this development in next year.
President Putin will win this time too, despite many western attempt.
Chancellor Angela Markel won't serve full term this time. She would be out of office by 2019 at earliest.
Egypt will see a new president this year.
PM Modi will continue to be a popular and strong leader. His party will be continue to win elections although they will begin to suffer setbacks. Also, there will be increasing inner fighting within his party. Womens will get higher post in his party and goverment.
 ---------------Economy-----------------
American economy will stay strong most of the year due tax bill. But, eventually only large corporations would benefit from this tax cut. It will boost economy and employment for a short time but will ultimately fail to reach its objective. In longer term it will increase economic inequality and market bubble. I see from late 2019 people will begin to feel negetive consequences of this bill.
China will continue to have internal economic issues with their rising debt level, but outwardly china will look strong signing more tread treaties(also a cushion to survive upcoming economic and financial collapse and spreading their geopolitical clout in asia in exchange for)and taking up leadership in various international forums. This year is their last chance to handle this problem correctly. Because when geopolitical tensions begins to escalate from next year there won't be any room to maneuver. Their vulnerability to debt may come to light in second-half of the year.
Indian economy will take a sharp turn upwards this year and will see rise of GDP returning to above 7% by second quarter of financial year. They will end the year more stronger. Real estate markets in new developing cities will begin to thrive. But in big cities market will collapse.
European economy will continue to stagnate. Italy and Greece both will continue to be sore spots. Both of them will become major economic headache for EU in next year if they don't leave this year.
It ultimately depends on Greek leadership whether they will leave EU or not. They know leaving EU will earn them nothing but enimity from other members of block. Plus greek politicians are kind of afraid of the repercussion it can bring from globalist mafia for them personally. So, they didn't leave until now. If they finally decide to take the plunge then know that it came after assurences from Russian leadership and it's likely to happen at the end of the year. Even if they didn't leave this year, I see them being the first one to leave post-2020(if they don't leave this year)after economic chaos hits EU in 2019-20 and authorities face population unrest.
Bitcoin will suffer a crash this year but will recover well by the end of the year. But rising incidents of cyber-crime will make people worry. Other than that new crypto-currencies will continue to emerge as digital cash becomes more popular.
Pay attention to the market trends during the middle of the year and last two months of the year. Watch out precious metal prices then and when markets peaks. Also, watch China's movements then. Whether it reduces it's dollar buying or not. These are pre cusors of coming financial crash in 2020 and global trade war in next decade.
-----Miscellonious incidents------
There will be a incident of leakage of a nuclear reactor(seemed a western country is the location from dream)
A Plane may vanish from pacific ocean this time.
More secrets about illegal offshore accounts like panama papers and paradise papers will be revealed.
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@asian, you state "Watch out precious metal prices then and when markets peak"Â Please clarify - do you see precious metal prices rising or falling then?
The value of precious metals has traditionally been a barometer for economic stability and uncertainty. In the fall of 2008, for instance, the price of silver went from about $10/oz to almost $50/oz. It is now about $17.50/oz. Economic upheaval could cause the value to shoot up again.
As Paul stated precious metal prices rises during market upheavel, so watch them. Between July-Sept and last two months of current years are the time to watch.
This year American elites will be busy converting their money to resources and storing money to offshore accounts. So, metal price will be manipulated for now. But, defenitely temporary jump in metal prices if market stumbles for few days(they will call it a market correction). Gold and Silver prices will peak(without being manipulated) after financial market upheavel in 2020 when elites decide to junk the market.Â
Paul and Asian, please make a major announcement when the value of precious metals starts to rise and warn us again and again and again! If something like that does begin to occur, what do you do with money you have in a 401K? Take a penalty and put it in a safety-deposit box or pay off all your debt and house? Last January I actually threw tarot cards on how to invest funds in one 401K and placed a big chunk of change in the only account that indicated it would pay off in the long-run ... for my child. I guessed I was either going to die early or it would take a long time to amount to anything. I know. This sounds like a really, really stupid way to invest. I would really like to know what people are planning to do about their 401Ks, though.
Gracesinger (and anyone with financial questions in general), I would talk to a financial planner, like a CFP, that can give you objective advice about your specific situation. (Not all financial planners do, many are just out to sell specific products that give them high commissions and the heck with you.) My local bank, for instance, has one on staff and your local bank might be a good place to start. Many times you can pay for an hour of their time to go over your situation. I think that the one at the local bank will discuss things for free with current customers. What you are not looking for is someone who insists you need to put all of your money in XYZ Corporation but someone who gives you a strategy or outline going forward. ("Pay off this debt first, delay buying a new car for two years, put an extra $100 towards your mortgage, start a 529, etc.")
It's always a good idea to pay off debt. As financial columnist Michele Singletary has said, "Debt is bondage." (That line has stuck with me for years.)
There is nothing magical about precious metals but they do serve as a barometer. In 2008 people panicked and rushed to buy something tangible, bidding up the price. As cooler heads prevailed, the price of precious metals "regressed to the mean" or fell back to a normal level.
Also, if the stock market does go to heck in a handbasket and the DJIA falls through the floor that way it did in late 2008 - it's a buying opportunity. Fortunes were made in late '08 and early '09 by people who scooped up securities at fire sale prices.Â
Good luck!
Well, I can't help it; I was born under a Taurus sun, Scorpio moon, and Pieces ascendant, and my angel cards have guided me better than the financial planners guide me relative to managing assets in my 401Ks, because they think I'm way too conservative. So, I'm moving stocks to bonds. I don't care if stocks fly upward, I'll sleep better knowing I created a firewall of sorts against losing everything.   Â
Gracesinger, it seems your intuition is spot on at the moment. This article talks about today’s drop in stocks and the fact the bond market is selling off, providing higher yields. interesting article :
http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/30/investing/stock-market-today/index.html
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Yeah. I'm good at avoiding calamity but not at taking risks. I won't get the benefits of the coming volatility, but my temperament can't handle too much of it. I couldn't get at everything and will be a bit angsty until later this year. Right now, it's where it's supposed to be for me. I think we're all in for a ride.
I don't like the stock market, my nerves can't handle even that ;-) But my father, who worked for Alaska Electric Power and Light all of his adult life left his 5 children his very small portfolio of AEL&P stocks..the only ones he ever owned. Split 5 ways we didn't think too much about them as just fixing up really aging and weathered family home on Douglas Island and taking care of the complications of my mom's passing causing problems with their joint will in another state that follows matriarchal law. But suddenly a couple of days ago I went into a complete and total hissy fit over owning even my small share. In a text message to my 4 younger brothers, I said I wanted mine sold..now! Haha. They were aghast..I never act like that and furthermore no one new if they could be sold much less divided.
So, much needed research finally began 7 plus years after my father's death and 4.5 after my mothers..with 5 adults making differing decisions coming to a consensus is a challenge! But then as I went outside to be with a dying pet chicken, I heard my father talking to me, then pleading not to sell his stocks. He told me the story of his buying them for just a small amount and how they had risen just in his own lifetime. He reminded me that AEL&P had become another company and then it another bigger one..the biggest energy one in Canada...Hydro One. He reminded me that his dad, my grandfather who was a goldminer in the worlds biggest gold mine on our tiny little island in SE Alaska mined iron ore and did the stamping using hydro powdered ditches that ran along the mountain ridge of our island and one that I have hiked both as a young girl and later and again after my father's death. Walking through the heavily forested fern filled ridgeline path along the grown over ditches that water flowed from down the mountains melting ice flows along and down to the gold mine was one of the most magical, mystical experiences of my life.A connect to my family heritage and all of the good people who worked so hard in the late 1800s and early 1900s as pioneer Alaskans raising families such as ours to adulthood.
So, after this I went online to do research on it, myself and found it was not part of the New York Stock Exchange so said to not sell my share just yet...I told them it was that exchange that was about to plunge...oh my if they thought I was crazy the first day, imagine changing my mind hours before the deadline for that next day.
The very next day the New York Stock Exchange plunged by biggest amount in 2 years...and get this by "666" points! Now, I don't know tiddly winks about stocks and even less about the Canadian ones but at least I know my own feelings. Now, I've postponed I may lose my little next egg somewhere down the line but I'm hoping my dad comes forward to give the go ahead if its before this fall or if it will only continue to go down from here on. No other stocks, no bonds.
Thoughts??? Gracesinger? Laurie H. Econ wizards?? and Intuitives without my dad pleading in their ear...
Michele - I had inherited stock certificates for New York Telephone and Telegraph that belonged to my great-grandfather. They dated to around 1915. About 25 years ago, I had a friend who worked on Wall Street research for me if they were were anything, given that NYTT became "Ma Bell", and then later on was ATT and then possibly Verizon. Turned out that their only worth was sentimental - suitable for framing but not sellable. I sent them to my nephew as a family memento. So my advice is to keep them, since your father clearly wishes you to. Don't worry about the value. It doesn't matter.
Hello Asian, in one of your 2018 predictions, you accurately predicted that Bitcoin would crash last year. With that said, the cryptocurrency market has not recovered yet. As of today, Bitcoin is down over 80% from its all-time highs from December of 2017. In addition, many of the other coins are down over 90% from their all-time highs. Where do you see Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies) going in 2019? Also, what do you see happening in the stock market this year? Do you see any crashes or major corrections occurring in the cryptocurrency market or the stock market this year? If so, when do you think they will happen? Thanks.
I'd like to report a possible hit, predicted by Helena in October 2017 for March 2019.
- Panic in March. People fleeing Sudan in Africa. (Helena) Predicted in October 2017.
I believe that this hasn't been reported much in the Western mainstream press, but Sudan has been experiencing mass protests since late December 2018. It is the result of citizens being unable to cope with a 70% inflation rate, and severe limits on accessing cash. Â Most people are unable to make ends meet.
IMHO conditions are not going to improve any time soon. I expect an exodus to begin shortly, if it hasn't already happened. I see parallels to what people are experiencing all over the world in occurrences such as Gilets Jaunes, and #shutdownstories.
An ominous development. I remember reading an article recently in the Guardian about how Sudan has been dealing with a major loss in oil revenue ever since South Sudan became an independent country in 2011 and took most of the country's oil fields with it. The drop-off in oil revenue is partly why the Sudanese are facing inflation and rising food prices.
This news is ominous because much of the destabilization that has occurred in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Egypt, and Libya can be traced to declines in oil revenue leading to increases in the cost of living for the average citizen. So the population engages in mass protests and political discontent and is usually met with a brutal response from the governing regime. These causes and effects are amplified by global warming-related droughts (which suppress agricultural yields). All of this ends in mass migration to safer regions (Europe), which then inflames far-right political movements in countries receiving migrants (remember, even developed countries have been failing to provide for all of their citizens since the 2008 financial crisis, and that's where the gilets jaunes come in). Basically, it's all tied together. Â
The journalist Nafeez Ahmed has a book out about how energy trends, global warming, and political dysfunction all feed into each other. I haven't read it yet, but it's on my list.