Wow! Jeanne your climate perditions are happening
I am putting this here because there are many predictions Jeanne has foreseen ( and others) that are happening now in Florida. This includes a divide between those with money and those without, rising sea levels and what we can expect in the future.
Lovendures, thank you for posting that article. It gave me chills to see that something I always knew would happen, something that most scientists did not think would happen that quickly, is now becoming accepted even in the business world. I wrote a couple of articles on this site back in 2012 to 2015 stating that South Florida would be gone by 2100. I even thought that perhaps all of Florida would be gone, but decided it was already radical enough to just write that South Florida will be gone.
At the time, the highly respected U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was predicting seas would rise by just a few inches by 2100. I expect they are sorry now that they were so conservative.
It's a strange feeling when you just know something is going to happen and others just don't see it. It's like so many of us see the monster that is running the country but others don't see it.
As for the people in the article who are rushing to buy land that is just 3 feet above sea level - Don't they see that the properties they will build at 3 feet sea level will themselves be gone by 2100? That Miami will be gone altogether by 2100?
Along the same lines as the above, the following article discusses the ramifications of the increase in speed of glacial melting and what that means as far as a rise in sea levels. It is happening faster than they thought.
Here are two articles I wrote about it five years ago. Here and here.
The link doesn't work - I get an error saying "Sorry, you are not allowed to edit this item."
Here are two links to articles. All of the climate change articles I wrote are also accessed by going to the menu <Articles> and hovering until you see <Climate Change>.
This brief article from Resilience.org enumerates the reasons why the effects of global warming are manifesting so much sooner than previously thought. One of the reasons has to do with the fact that IPCC reports are shaped by business and governmental stakeholders for whom there's no benefit in shaking up the status quo. We live in a culture that has collectively imbibed the Kool Aid of endless economic expansion, so it should come as no surprise that IPCC reports are overly tepid, or that property developers in FL think they will be safe if they purchase land that is 3 feet above sea level. Any objections to that mindset would hinder the creation of more capital.
Jeanne, either you or someone else once posted a comment on this forum about having read a psychological study of climatologists. Basically, the study found that climate researchers tend to self-censor and keep private their more dire projections about how human society will be affected by global warming. I would very much like to read that study.
Thanks for the article. Makes sense, and I always felt the IPCC were politically influenced in the wrong direction.
In this article I wrote for this website back in 2013 and updated in 2014, I had found a survey of climate scientists that I felt told the truth about what they really thought about our climate future. Perhaps that was what you are referring to that you saw on this site.
The study I found was a 2013 survey by Real Climate.org who sent out questionnaires to hundreds of actively working climate scientists who had published at least once in the previous five years. They asked the scientists what they thought the sea level rise (S.L.R.) would be by 2021 under best case and worst case scenarios. Since the IPCC was uselessly conservative, I took this study as the only way I could tell what the experts really knew in their heart of hearts.
For anyone who has read Malcolm Gladwell's Blink, the first chapter of that book deals with the instant knowing of experts and how they have a knowing about their subject that they might censor in written analyses, but if they are asked to make a judgement off the top of their heads, they can be quite accurate. It's a type of thinking, a kind of intuition, called "thin slicing" where the brain has distilled the essence of knowledge that experts have gained from their profession.
Getting back to the climate survey, out of about 400 who they asked, 90 responded and a tiny number predicted sea level rise would reach 10-20 feet by end of century as a worst case scenario.
I just "knew" that 20 feet would be the true situation and that it would be a minimum. Also I felt it could be up to threefold higher in some hot spots, like the U.S. eastern seaboard which has seen in some cases much higher S.L.R. than the global average for a number of reasons that I think I also put in that article.
Also James Hansen saw 10-20 feet as real possibilities in a worst case scenario, and, having seen him give a few talks, and having read some of his studies, I "knew" he was right.
The IPCC will go down in history as having dropped the ball when it mattered most that they should have stepped up their warnings. They failed humanity. They have now issued more dire warnings as more data has emerged - too little too late.
P.S. Later in 2016, I discussed my climate intuitions with Zoron who also had a big interest in climate science and was a member of a climate group that focused on the Arctic. He felt 20 feet SLR would happen sooner, more like 2075.
Warning: not much positive in the above, but it might make someone feel less alone.
Thanks for the links, Jeanne. It's interesting to note how, since those RealClimate survey findings were released in 2013, lots of studies have verifiably shown that rapid SLR is a possibility this century (read this article from Yale for more details). In light of all of those recent findings, I wonder how many climatologists surveyed six years ago would revise their estimates of SLR upwards if the survey were repeated today For some perspective, it helps to keep in mind that during the last interglacial period 120,000 years ago, temperatures were only 1 degree celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, but sea levels were 20-30 feet higher. Now we've already warmed the atmosphere by 1 degree since the pre-industrial era, and we're fast approaching the 1.5 degree threshold.