[Solved] West Anarctica ice sheet news -- this effects all coastal cities
We have a hit on a prediction I did last year that this spring climate news would become dire, actually the word that came it me was "terrifying".
The NYTimes came out with this story today that characterized the current situatiOn in Antarctica as very scary and pointed out what I though everyone already knew-- that the ice sheet's collapse is inevitable.
Timing is everything here. They think 6 to 8 feet by the end of the century, give or take several decades. I have thought 20 feet by 2100 but maybe as much as 50 years sooner. Concerned about costal cities and a vision I had in 1986 that well heeled refugees would be pouring out of nyc all at once. I think that vision will come true within the next 20 years.
I'd like to know more about the science, i.e. How quickly would a collapse effect our cities if it happens. Also I would think that they'd see it happening before the final collapse and people would have time to lace coastal cities. what is the earliest it could happen? They don't know I think because this has never happened before in earth history.
But if anyone has some scientific answers about this-- can point to some studies , I'd like to know. All I get on it is that it will happen much earlier than they predict. I don't see it happening this year but when?
I don't want to hear what other psychics think. I've got my own visions and also I trust the visions we get using the prediction timeline method with a lot of people weighing in.
Just want to know all the science the scientists know--glaciologists mainly.
NASA's JPL website interactive is a good place to start, I think. I'll try to find best stats link in a bit...
Wow, Doc..what am amazing resource. I could understand Icelinks at the bottom section. I'm looking forward to a data translation by someone in the know for the rest of it 😉
My husband and I were talking about all of this yesterday after hearing the piece on NPR with their broader predictions for the end of the century.
I told him they'll be something within a year that surprises everyone and he added and he added..and once it speeds up it will be faster than they imagine. I want us all to be wrong on any dire prediction!!
Hi Michelle - thanks so much! I visit the NASA JPL site often, but the
NSIDC site is new to me and I've been surfing for hours there since I found it....
Here's a good read - I like this one because it shows the different Larsen shelves and their effects. Very dramatic! https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-02-24/researchers-continue-watch-massive-rift-antarctica-likely-create-delaware-sized
Glad you and your husband enjoyed the links! 🙂
Doc thanks. I've been away and off the grId since posting that NYTimes article. I look forward to reading the science when I get back at the end of the week.
So far I respect James Hansen's work the most. His latest study says 10-20 feet by 2100 give or take some decades. His models are more comprehensive than most other climate scientists, i.e., he includes many more factors in his estimates, and thus his final predictions show higher sea level rise happening much sooner than other estimates, but I still think he is conservative compared to what I sense is coming.
He left NASA because he said political pressure there wouldn't let him tell the truth.
I also read a study a few years ago that used what I consider the best method for getting the truth. It was an intuitive method that sent questionnaires to 500 publishing climatologists asking them for their sense of what the sea level rise would be by century's end. Many would not answer. Using intuition in this way combines their vast scientific knowledge with their intuition which, if you read Malcolm gladwell's book Blink, you will understand why the intuition of an expert may get at the truth on a complex subject. But a few said 20 feet. My gut is that coastal cities will be inundated before 2030.
I look forward to reading the studies you linked.
Unfortunately glaciologist say they don't know how to determine when a glacier will collapse. They say that there's a lot going on inside the glacier that they can't see, then suddenly it collapses. If this whole issue hadn't become so wrapped up in politics and financial stake holders not wanting people to know the truth, governments would start moving people out of nyc and other vulnerable cities much sooner or at least they'd be building storm barriers.
I pray there won't be loss of life but since the government is irresponsible, we are surly going to have a refugee problem and a lot of traumatized displaced people when instead we could have done sensible planning.
I'm also going to meditate on this issue this week and will post something. This is one issue I want to get right, but far the most important issue we face.
Hi Jeanne! Yes, the Antarctic ice loss is one of the most challenging scientific issues right now. Mostly Antarctica was ignored in favor of the Arctic science expeditions for a long, long time.
Researchers just don't know how long it will take for the glaciers to empty into the bay after the Larsen C shelf drops into the sea. Even mile-deep drilling at multiple places upstream from the shelf can't provide the exact volume of ice versus water that's present in those glaciers. That's only one problem, and without that type of data, scientists just don't know how fast sea levels will rise.
And for multiple good reasons, Arctic extrapolations aren't much help when applied to Antarctica since the former is mostly floating ice and the latter has a continent under it.
So solid data predictions are sparse indeed, as you note above.
I do hope the links I added can help provide more info, but again, predicted timelines for sea-level effects are slim indeed.
Oh, I would also add that even with massive glacier melt upstream of Larsen C, along with all the other melts on the continent as well as in the Arctic, a rise to 30 foot levels in 12 years couldn't result -- not without a third of all ice at each pole totally melting at an extremely rapid rate. Right now, the shear volume of ice and thus the data, just don't support that.
I generally concur. The sea level rise at the moment is not from melting ice, its from thermal expansion of the oceans, as the seas heat up.
There has been a recent surge in the North Atlantic, which may also be due to the massive shift in Currents underway...and large changes to the Gyres, which are heat pumps, essentially. Who knows, we are into uncharted territory. The problem is the logistical curve of event timings. Everything is speeding up, horribly, in a way I never thought possible. Its a ski ramp of stuff happening. We also are also now firmly, for practical purposes, in early stages of runaway. The frozen tundra is going awol. The huge undersea methane vents, in the Arctic, are there, and getting larger. So the process will now run until it ends, and sometime in the next century, it will stabilise at the new level of climate and the new ocean/weather circulation system. Change will go on for a while, but most of it is in the next 120-150 years, I think. The geomagnetic field is going wild. The Glaciers are definitely going. The Greenland cap is now fragmenting. Etc etc etc. But sea level, well, it is definitely going to get higher. The issue is, how fast. I think we need to split thermal expansion from melt water from the caps, etc. I think it entirely possible that some of the internal estimates I have seen, and discussed, in climate research groups, are possible. My own gut feeling is around 10 meters, plus or minus 5, by say 2120. The unknowables are large. I also believe that things like very large, double vortex storms will become common, and that ultimately, we are going to get superstorms. (Hollywood disaster movie scale). For the next 100 years, sea level rise is not the main issue, its the collapse of the existing weather system, as the rain forests die, and the Geomagnetic vortex of the weather machines at the poles go strange. I think we are facing several decades of severe drought, in the early phase, and then several decades of massive rains, as the system readjusts. Say 40 years of drought, 40 years of rain. Say 100 years of severe agricultural problems. Also throw in strange Solar events, over the next 100 years. If I had heard this 30 years ago, I would have written it off as simply not credible. Now the issue is: "How Bad". I do not want to use frightening language, Doc, but some plain-speaking is required. I have this strange dual role, where the scientist in me overlaps the Intuition. Very weird. Your comments are welcome and appreciated. Regards Zoron.
"I think we are facing several decades of severe drought, in the early phase, and then several decades of massive rains, as the system readjusts."
Zoron, I recently found this 2015 NASA projection which shows a map of North America's drought conditions (see second video) worsening over time in two scenarios: business as usual and moderate emissions. It does not show that 40 years of drought will be followed by 40 years of rains.
I stopped the video at certain years to see where the world might be as I got older. I was really surprised to see the northwest drying up; I thought Oregon and Washington would be relatively safe havens.
The article states that previous research included analysis of only one drought indicator and results from fewer climate models, while this study was the most robust drought projection than any previously published.
"What I think really stands out in the paper is the consistency between different metrics of soil moisture and the findings across all the different climate models," said Kevin Anchukaitis, a climate scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, who was not involved in the study. "It is rare to see all signs pointing so unwaveringly toward the same result, in this case a highly elevated risk of future megadroughts in the United States."
So I was just wondering what you thought of this study and how it does/doesn't jive with your psychic visions.
Thank you, Doc. That's the information I was looking for. Zoron, who works in climate science, thought that the refugee dream I had of NYC must be due to a super storm rather than a tidal wave from glaciers tumbling into the sea. Fortunately storms have a lead time of several days for people to evacuate.
Your estimates make the most sense right now. You've got the combined gift of expert knowledge on this subject and intuition and you are not hampered by political pressures. Also your estimates resonate with my own intuitive sense about how it will unfold.
Thank you ALL for weighing in here.
Yes one thing I've felt all along that you mentioned is that we are going to go through extreme transitional weather for about a hundred years while the earth adjusts to the sudden and extreme change we've brought upon it. In geological time, the shift in atmospheric greenhouse gases we've created is like a sudden explosion --equivalent in some ways to the meteor that hit the earth and killed all the dinosaurs.
We are witnessing in slow motion the impact of a cataclysmic event -- the rise in green house gases-- as the earth responds to it.
My estimates are probably "Ball park good". My science work, plus my intuition, has led me to a rough immediate estimate:
We are into three phases:
Phase 1: "Breakout into Green-House runaway" condition. This is happening now. The climate change engine is now essentially self-sustaining, now that the ice sheets are breaking up, the Arctic sea ice is on the edge of total summer collapse, and the rain forests are approaching a critical die-back point. This phase might last 20 years, and we are in it now. We are about three years into it. It is accelerating. Around say, 2030 or so, we will be at a critical breakpoint, where it transitions into massive weather system changes on a Global scale.
At this end of the primary phase, I anticipate about 40 years, (plus or minus ten) of intense Drought conditions, deep in the large land masses, such as the American Plains, the Tundra, etc. Plus die-off of large sections of the rain forests. This will severely damage agriculture output, on a Global scale.
The weather system, under climate impacts, will settle then into a fast arriving "Pluvial", on a global scale, with massive rains and storms. The Sahara will become/revert to the savannah and jungle it was 15,000 years ago. This is already partly happening. This will take a phase of 40 years, plus or minus ten.
At this point, we are at about 2100 AD, plus or minus ten. There is then a steady "Ramp up" of about a 100 years, to a plateau, where there is slow change. At around 300 years from now, we reach climate stability, the new climate and weather system of the Planet. This new system could last anywhere up to 10,000 years, when the next Milancovich Ice age cycle kicks in. Climate then slowly reverts to something like the present, but with a seriously collapsed biosphere and eco-sphere. There is massive species extinction. (This includes about 70-90% of the Humans that survive).
There is also a chance that the flip phase, could lead to a short ice event, (3-20 years) over most of the Northern hemisphere. This would initiate a rapid early die-off of the Human population. Perhaps to as low as 30% of the present plus or minus 10%.
There is a lot of variability here, but the general direction is now pretty much established.
We have passed the point of no-return, on climate. There is now no going back, to "Normal".
I shall write more soon.
Zoron wow... The hardest part for me has been watching people deny the reality of climate change, and now it's too late because of the greed and selfishness of a few and their idiot supporters we are doomed. What do you think will happen to our species long term, looking centuries ahead, do you see a civilization at all? On a more metaphysical note, if we die out here, what happens to our consciousness, I mean our spiritual selves. This is off topic, I am sorry. It's terrifying to think about what we are facing, I'm still in denial about it myself.
My work these days on climate is more or less over, I still connect with the key groups, but as an observer. I track what is happening.
But thew key issue for Me today is the consequences of climate change (Really should be referred to as "CLIMATE CATASTROPHE").
A while back, I did a rerun of the Club of Rome Model, "Limits to Growth" which was the first attempt to sort out how finite the carrying capacity of the planet was. It was fairly grim. we upgraded, put in peak oil, and peak food, and climate change. It pointed towards a catastrophe. So my main interest now, is one of survival. Put simply: Can we avoid civilizational collapse, the loss of our technological society and the reversion to a new dark age, with a population crash of perhaps 80% plus?. The outlook does not look too good.
The planning required to deal with climate change simply does not exist. There is no UN master plan, no real understanding of the scale of the problem, and no political will to do anything about it. The political elite are essentially delusional on this one.
The population is now 8 billion, and the next goal post, 9 billion, is only about 8 years away. 8 billion is the limit of the existing food supply, with the present levels of production. Anyway, I think other issues will happen, before then. So its "Survival of a technological civilisational core society" that must now be the main issue. At the moment, this is not happening. The present emergency food stocks cannot cope with the next 10 years, as the weather system impact on the food system causes a crisis. So after 2020, serious signs of collapse and crisis after crisis, firstly in the third world, but eventually, everywhere. I am writing this, as I think it is now time to look at the issues clearly, and closely. We cannot just sit here, and do nothing.
Once again thank you Zoron. "Do something". I've heard that since I was born, and not much has been done. World government's are slow to react if they react at all (Paris is not a binding agreement, or strict enough), but also many global citizens refuse to believe in climate science too. When the population of the earth is made up of so many people that refuse to accept objective reality and facts, we are doomed. I get extremely upset thinking about it, but I have a hard time really understanding how my life will change. I grew up with the prosperity of the west, I know nothing else, I have a feeling I'm going to know a different way of life at some point. I guess I was just wondering if your intuitive sense can predict what human civilization will look like in say 2300, if it will exist etc....
The last dark ages after the fall of Rome are one place I look to find guidance as to what could happen. And decentralization of governments and empires is what happened then, and what is predicted to happen now. But there was also an element of civilization collapse after the fall of Rome and a loss of skills and technology. All of this can happen again, but it will be worse this time because of the climate. The one thing I don't think we will lose is all our tech, and scientific and medical knowledge, because there's too many people and institutions who keep this knowledge.
I also ask quite often why we are doing this to ourselves. I know the answer of greed and selfishness, but this is suicidal and I don't understand how it could go on.
While governments are slow to act with regards to climate change, there are grassroots groups like 350.org that are taking action for the health of our planet. In my state, this group is especially active against fracking. This and similar organizations don't get much attention, but they're definitely working towards earth-sustaining solutions.
Thanks so much for your recent post. For all the evidence that we’re in an exponential (runaway) global warming period, which is so overwhelming that it’s completely undeniable, I still don’t see us going into total global meltdown – intuitively or science-wise -- because the “brakes” will be applied by the planet itself.
I am certainly not a global scientist or have the background that Zoron states. So please, everyone, take my following statements as just coming from someone who has followed the climate reports over the last 40 years as an engineer who then became a social scientist.
First, using various dating techniques, when an extremely long-view is taken from ice core samples (as well as ocean floor samples at different depths), repeated isotope analysis shows that warming periods between major ice ages (which we’re currently in) create a “saw-tooth” pattern within each warming plateau. We’re in an upward temperature swing within one of these saw-tooths (that is, the exponential warming we’re now measuring and experiencing).
These saw-tooths also correspond to isotope patterns that are tied to differences in moisture levels at both poles (with most of these data coming from Arctic regions). Basically, the more moisture at the poles (from melting, rain patterns, slush), the stronger the chance a freeze will then quickly correct the warming spike. This is based not only on dated isotope samples, but also the spectral analysis of chemical levels/proportions within these samples. These historical patterns are also incontrovertible due to the amount of data demonstrating this.
(Side note: recent examples include soaked/flooded permafrost in higher northern climes that then “flash freeze” with loss of wildlife such as reindeer and so on, as well as recent melted “lakes” on top of major glaciers in the south that also flash freeze.)
Second, there is astronomical data that is further connected to these major patterns. Sun activity is known to go into cycles where lots and lots of “solar ejections” bathe our planet (and all the other ones in the solar system, too) with radiation that serves to heat everything here, top to bottom. Conversely, there are parts of the cycle where the sun goes somewhat “dormant” where these ejections are reduced -- thus, during reductions, a bit of global cooling happens and during increased ejections, a bit of global heating.
There is some phase displacement in the timing of these solar cycles with the saw-tooth temperature patterns at the top of the warming pattern. Scientists still find the “amount” of time displacement to be controversial, because there is some disagreement about how exactly to measure the levels of solar ejection from ice and soil samples. Nevertheless, there is a delay during solar cycles in terms of global cooling. Some place it somewhere between 50-100 years, some place it at half of that, while others say it’s 5 to 10 times longer.
In any case, we have some natural “brakes” that are occurring on “runaway” global warming that just do not get talked about a lot in the media (other than the scam sites that are screaming we’re overdue for another ice age – mostly funded by corporations with skin in the fossil fuel business and strange conservative backing). Right now, we have two well-documented brakes -- increased moisture levels at the poles and solar activity cycles. Both are currently happening.
There’s also something else going on that’s so obscure and bizarre that NASA scientists are still trying to figure out the real-world effects – we’ve entered into a new place in the galaxy – and when I say “we,” I mean the entire solar system. We’ve exited a galatic “cloud,” similar to driving a car out of a thunderstorm and into clear skies.
Currently, we’re being hit by cosmic energy that humans have never seen before and that doesn’t appear anywhere in ice/soil core samples. In fact, scientists are so confused about exactly what effects this will have on astronauts outside our atmosphere as well as the planet overall, that special teams have been commissioned to look at the effects on humans in orbit, the atmosphere itself (spectrally and chemically), our oceans, and of course land-based phenomenon. It’s so new, they’re having trouble not only measuring it, but also figuring out the appropriate methods to interpret any findings. We just don’t know what’s up with this yet.
Does our new place in the galaxy provide cosmic energy that speeds up or slows down warming, or conversely, cooling? Right now, no one knows. But I’m with that astrophysicist I talked about before – she said it’s like a needed spa treatment for the planet that refreshes everything. That’s my take, without totally understanding everything she does from a scientific standpoint.
It resonates with my intuition. We’re certainly not headed for human extinction – and not even major displacement, death, or widespread heartache. Instead, we’re in the middle of a major cleansing. Warmth before the cool -- opening the pores of the entire planet.
And yes, you can certainly label me Pollyanna if you wish – I’m seeing nothing but positive outcomes ahead both science-wise and intuitively.
Best and thanks to all!
Thanks for your optimistic post Doc!
Thank you so much, Zoron and Doc for your knowledge, information and viewpoints.
I needed to read and think about your post..and I have been... to feel out connections to ideas, intuitions, and beliefs that I have been working with for several decades on a somewhat esoteric level of understanding to explain happenings in my own life and the lives of those I connected with.Decades ago it was called "M Consciousness" and it was a place in quantum understandings where I, myself, was working with enormous amounts of bio-magnetic energies that I was seeking to explain and understand in relation to an expanded view of humanity, consciousness, and our connections to one another.
Even if there is a massive destruction of much of what we know as civilization and even if many of us or our future selves do not survive decades and eons of climate and social change, there is still something that will persevere whether its in another quantum reality or an altered by unknown cosmic energies in this one which will elevate from this world to a higher five dimensional one.
So, your explanation of sawtooth patterns, flash freezing to balance out melting etc. and the idea that that unknown cosmic energies are being studied to examine potential climate change effects supports my belief that our world, our earth, our galaxy and solar system is a manifestation of a living organism...Gaia magnified and expanded.... through another level of what I see as Divine Consciousness but could also be seen as homeostasis and the natural order of balance.
Even when my human self is challenged by anxiety...not for myself as much as for my children, grandchildren, and future generations..there is a deep intuitive part of myself that also balances out at some point and brings me back to a place of acceptance if not actual understanding. The ever so wonderful "This too shall pass." concept that has gotten me through some very challenging life experiences from birth on to my current sixth getting closer to 7th decade.
This post connected to my core beliefs and my own personal work in understanding the nature of manifestation and divine and cosmic consciousness and our connection as part of the whole where all of us combined is far greater than any individual system is supported by the feelings that came into me when reading your post. And it reinforces my belief that homeostasis might be possible on the grandest of scales. We are seeing cycles and patterns in timeline flux...why couldn't we manifest miracles in this bigger stage as well? Perhaps the Great Turning will also speed up if we reach a mass level of unified consciousness.
So, your "Pollyanna" positivity is not only welcome and appreciated but means a great deal to me in finding my my own balance point right now.
" There's also something else going on that's so obscure and bizarre that NASA scientists are still trying to figure out the real-world effects - we've entered into a new place in the g galaxy - and when I say 'we,' I mean the entire solar system. We've exited a galactic 'cloud,' similar to driving a car out of thunderstorm and into clear skies." 0 ?